Recent US-Iran nuclear talks have experienced ebbs and flows, with alternate signals of tension and relaxation released from the negotiation table representing the uncertainty of the course of Iran's nuclear program. Nevertheless, the principal contradiction of this issue has remained unchanged though disguised by the ever-changing appearance.
近期的美伊核談判可謂一波三折，時(shí)而緊張、時(shí)而緩和的信號(hào)不斷從談判桌上傳出，體現(xiàn)了伊核問題走向的撲朔迷離。但在瞬息萬變的表象背后，伊核問題的主要矛盾一直未變。
Considering the four rounds of talks held by the US and Iran, the talks have proceeded into the most difficult stage of core importance, namely the discussion around the future survival of Iran's nuclear capabilities. On the US side, although the Trump administration has shown a positive willingness to negotiate, it has been escalating its extreme sanctions against Iran, showing the "negotiations under pressure" methodology applied by the US without any fundamental change. Meanwhile, the US has not yielded on the issue of enriched uranium, insisting on its ultimate goal of Iran's self-disarmament and complete abandonment of the prospect of possessing nuclear weapons. This position contradicts Iran's long-term pursuit of an independent nuclear foreign policy, therefore lacking a positive response from the Iranian side.
從美伊已舉行的四輪談判來看，雙方談判已進(jìn)入最核心、也是最困難的階段，即討論未來伊朗核能力的存續(xù)問題。美國(guó)方面，盡管特朗普政府展現(xiàn)出積極的談判意愿，但仍不斷升級(jí)對(duì)伊朗的極限制裁，美“以壓促談”的手段未發(fā)生根本性變化。與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)在濃縮鈾問題上并未讓步，其最終目的仍是伊朗“自廢武功”，完全放棄擁有核武器的可能性。這一立場(chǎng)與伊朗長(zhǎng)期謀求的獨(dú)立自主核外交政策相悖，自然得不到伊朗方面的積極回應(yīng)。
On the Iranian side, the unaligned statements among top government officials reflect serious divisions within the senior leadership. A senior adviser once said that Iran was willing to give up weapons-grade highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief by the US side. Later, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated differently that Iran would never stop uranium enrichment activities and accused the US of "completely unreasonable" demands.
伊朗方面，政府高層的表態(tài)相互齟齬反映了伊高層內(nèi)部存在嚴(yán)重分歧。一名高級(jí)顧問曾表示，伊朗愿放棄武用高濃縮鈾以換取美解除制裁。隨后，最高領(lǐng)袖哈梅內(nèi)伊及外長(zhǎng)阿拉格齊卻表態(tài)稱，伊朗永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)停止?jié)饪s鈾活動(dòng)，并指責(zé)美方的要求“完全不合理”。
The Trump administration failed to make sufficient policy adjustments against Iran or reach an internal consensus. Its present seeking of reconciliation with Iran stems mainly from rational calculation and transaction, rather than an inversion of its perceptions toward Iran. There is a deep-rooted hostility against Iran in the US, which preordains the great limitation on the adjustment of the Trump administration's diplomatic strategy toward Iran. Even with the intention to ease relations with Iran, Trump himself would face strong domestic opposition.
特朗普政府對(duì)伊政策調(diào)整并不充分，且內(nèi)部缺乏共識(shí)。當(dāng)前特朗普政府尋求與伊朗改善關(guān)系，主要出于理性算計(jì)與交易目的，并不代表其對(duì)伊朗態(tài)度發(fā)生徹底改觀。美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)伊朗抱有深刻的敵意，這決定了特朗普政府對(duì)伊朗外交策略的調(diào)整有很大局限性。特朗普本人即使希望緩和與伊朗關(guān)系，也會(huì)面臨強(qiáng)大的國(guó)內(nèi)反對(duì)壓力。
On the Iranian side, its senior political leadership has neither reached a consensus nor formed a unified position on the issues related to contact and detente with the US. Iran has been engaging with the US with abiding distrust. Based on the long experience of dealing with the US, the pragmatic conservatives believe that the US is not worthy of trust given its repeated acts of breaking promises. In light of the recent continuous extreme pressure on Iran by the US, Iran's senior leadership has been shifting from cautiously optimistic to negative response to the nuclear talks.
伊朗方面，伊朗政治高層在與美國(guó)接觸及緩和相關(guān)議題上尚未達(dá)成共識(shí)且未形成一致立場(chǎng)。伊朗一直帶著極度不信任的態(tài)度與美接觸。保守務(wù)實(shí)派根據(jù)長(zhǎng)期與美國(guó)打交道的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，認(rèn)為美國(guó)存在多次違背承諾行為，因此不值得信任。鑒于近期美國(guó)仍持續(xù)不斷對(duì)伊極限施壓，伊朗高層對(duì)核談判的態(tài)度從謹(jǐn)慎樂觀開始轉(zhuǎn)向消極應(yīng)對(duì)。
The fundamental reason underlying the lack of effective progress in the US-Iran nuclear talks resides in the deep distrust besetting the two sides, resulting in unwillingness to make concessions or compromises. The US believes that lifting sanctions on the ground of allowing Iran to maintain the ability to produce nuclear weapons would be tantamount to uncaging the tiger. Iran, on the other hand, perceives that a promise to give up its nuclear capability completely in exchange for the lifting of sanctions will probably incur another betrayal by the US. This distrust between the two sides has been undermining the willingness and basis for negotiations over the past few months.
美伊在核談判問題上之所以無法取得有效進(jìn)展，本質(zhì)上是因?yàn)殡p方對(duì)彼此抱有高度不信任感，因此在核心議題上都寸步不讓、難以妥協(xié)。美國(guó)認(rèn)為如果在允許伊朗繼續(xù)擁有制造核武器能力的前提下解除制裁，無異于“放虎歸山”；而伊朗則認(rèn)為以完全放棄核能力換取美國(guó)解除制裁的承諾，很可能會(huì)遭到美國(guó)的再次背叛。雙方對(duì)彼此的這種不信任不斷消解著過去幾個(gè)月兩國(guó)談判的意愿與基礎(chǔ)。
In addition, it is improper to ignore Israel's influence on the US. In recent days, the Trump administration appears to have excluded Israel from its Middle East strategy intentionally. Instead of submitting to Trump's Middle East policy, Israel is deliberately aggravating tensions and even showing signs of direct military action against Iran. Israel seemingly reminds Trump with its tough stance that Israel would not hesitate to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if it did not abandon uranium enrichment activities. However, there is a slim chance that Israel will use force against Iran without the help of the US, but Israel may leverage certain events to amplify the "Iran threat", thereby inducing a pullback in the US policy toward Iran.
除此之外，以色列對(duì)美國(guó)的影響力也不容忽視。最近一段時(shí)期，特朗普政府似乎有意將以色列排除在其中東戰(zhàn)略之外。以色列不但沒有屈從于特朗普的中東政策，反而有意激化矛盾，甚至表露出對(duì)伊朗直接動(dòng)武的跡象。以色列的強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)似乎在提醒特朗普，如果伊朗不放棄濃縮鈾活動(dòng)，以色列將毫不猶豫地摧毀其核設(shè)施。沒有美國(guó)的幫助，以色列對(duì)伊朗動(dòng)武的可能性不大，但以色列或許會(huì)借助某些事件加大渲染“伊朗威脅”，從而引發(fā)美國(guó)對(duì)伊朗政策的回調(diào)。
(The author is Han Jianwei, an associate professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University)
（作者系上海外國(guó)語大學(xué)中東研究所副教授韓建偉）
Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
