Russian and Ukrainian delegations held their first direct talks in over three years on May 16 in Istanbul, Turkey. Details of the negotiations have emerged recently, revealing an agreement to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each and a willingness, in principle, to continue dialogue and negotiations. Following the talks, Russia expressed overall satisfaction with the results, while Ukraine voiced dissatisfaction. Besides, on May 19 local time, US President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, urging both sides to agree to a ceasefire. Does this difficult step forward after three years mark a substantive breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine talks?

俄羅斯和烏克蘭代表團(tuán)于當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間5月16日在土耳其伊斯坦布爾舉行雙方3年多來(lái)的首次直接談判。相關(guān)談判細(xì)節(jié)近日陸續(xù)曝光，雙方就互換1000名戰(zhàn)俘達(dá)成共識(shí)，同時(shí)“原則上”愿意繼續(xù)接觸和談判。俄方在會(huì)后表示對(duì)談判結(jié)果總體滿意，而烏方則表示不滿。此外，當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間5月19日，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普與俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京、烏克蘭總統(tǒng)澤連斯基分別通話，敦促雙方達(dá)成?；?。那么，俄烏時(shí)隔3年邁出的艱難一步，是否取得了實(shí)質(zhì)性突破？

At the start of the negotiations, Russian presidential aide and head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, told the Ukrainian team that Russia would only discuss a ceasefire and other issues if Ukraine withdrew its troops from Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. Ukraine, on the other hand, insisted on a ceasefire first, followed by negotiations. Military observer Teng Jianqun believes that although the negotiations were fraught with complications and the demands of Russia and Ukraine remain far apart, the outcome still represents a step forward in addressing the conflict.

在此次談判伊始，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)助理、俄烏談判俄方代表團(tuán)團(tuán)長(zhǎng)梅金斯基便告訴烏克蘭代表團(tuán)，只有烏克蘭從扎波羅熱、赫爾松、頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克地區(qū)撤軍，俄方才會(huì)討論?；鸷推渌麊?wèn)題；而烏克蘭則主張先停火、后談判。軍事觀察員滕建群認(rèn)為，盡管此次談判過(guò)程一波三折，且俄烏雙方訴求差異巨大，但談判結(jié)果對(duì)解決俄烏問(wèn)題仍具有一定推進(jìn)作用。

He noted that both sides were bargaining high by putting forward their maximal positions in this round of talks. Russia hopes to resume talks based on the framework of the Istanbul negotiations held in March 2022, but Ukraine clearly disagrees. The core differences between the two sides lie in issues such as territorial control and Ukraine's potential neutral status. In essence, whether to implement a ceasefire before negotiations or negotiate before a ceasefire is a matter of stance rather than substance. Fundamentally, the fact that Russia and Ukraine have returned to the negotiating table is itself a significant step forward. Going forward, Russia and Ukraine may step up communication, and the pace of future negotiations could accelerate.

軍事觀察員滕建群分析稱，在這輪談判中，俄烏雙方都在“要高價(jià)”，提出了各自的最高目標(biāo)。俄羅斯希望以2022年3月的伊斯坦布爾談判為基礎(chǔ)，而烏克蘭顯然不同意。雙方的主要分歧在于領(lǐng)土歸屬、烏克蘭的中立地位等問(wèn)題。事實(shí)上，無(wú)論是先停火還是先談判，這都只是雙方態(tài)度層面的分歧。從根本上看，俄烏雙方能夠重回談判桌，這本身就是巨大進(jìn)展。接下來(lái)，俄烏之間可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)溝通，未來(lái)的談判進(jìn)程或?qū)ⅰ疤崴佟薄?/p>

However, even as talks resume, the situation on the battlefield remains deadlocked. According to the Russian defense ministry, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks and launched counteroffensives in multiple directions, including Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops repelled multiple Russian offensives in the Pokrovsk direction. According to Teng Jianqun, the standoff on the battlefield is likely to persist as both sides seek to strengthen their bargaining positions.

就在俄烏重啟談判的同時(shí)，戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)形勢(shì)依然膠著。俄羅斯國(guó)防部稱，俄軍在蘇梅、哈爾科夫、頓涅茨克、扎波羅熱等多個(gè)方向擊退烏軍進(jìn)攻，并展開(kāi)反攻。烏克蘭武裝部隊(duì)總參謀部則通報(bào)稱，烏軍在波克羅夫斯克方向多次擊退俄軍進(jìn)攻。在滕建群看來(lái)，俄烏雙方為爭(zhēng)取談判籌碼，戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上的對(duì)峙仍將繼續(xù)。

He noted that in the near term, Russian forces are expected to intensify their offensives to consolidate control over eastern Ukraine, fulfill the objectives of the second phase of their "special military operation," and secure greater leverage at the negotiating table. Ukrainian forces, for their part, are expected to mount a staunch resistance, as the outcome of any negotiations will ultimately be shaped by the situation on the battlefield.

滕建群指出，未來(lái)一段時(shí)間，俄軍勢(shì)必會(huì)加強(qiáng)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上的進(jìn)攻力度，以鞏固對(duì)烏東地區(qū)的有效控制，確保實(shí)現(xiàn)第二階段特別軍事行動(dòng)目標(biāo)，保證自己在談判桌上擁有更多籌碼。而烏軍勢(shì)必頑強(qiáng)抵抗，畢竟談判成果最終取決于戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。

With no substantial progress made in the Russia-Ukraine talks and fighting still ongoing, US President Donald Trump stated that he had spoken separately with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky by phone, urging both sides to agree to a ceasefire. Teng said that despite the continued involvement of the US in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Trump administration has played a limited role in actually resolving the crisis.

在俄烏談判無(wú)實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展，且戰(zhàn)事仍在持續(xù)的情況下，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普表示，分別與普京和澤連斯基通話，敦促雙方達(dá)成?；稹ｋㄈ赫J(rèn)為，盡管美國(guó)不斷介入俄烏沖突，但在實(shí)際解決沖突的問(wèn)題上，特朗普政府發(fā)揮的作用十分有限。

Donald Trump currently has two main considerations. On one hand, he seeks to assert leadership in mediating the conflict to fulfill his campaign promises. On the other hand, he aims to further improve US-Russia relations. Initially, he attempted to strike a deal with Russia and pressure Ukraine into accepting it, but both Ukraine and European nations rejected his proposal. Now, he is trying to position himself as a mediator. However, since Russia and Ukraine are the primary parties to the conflict, the US has limited ability to directly influence its course.

滕建群表示，特朗普目前有兩方面考慮：第一，他試圖展示自身在俄烏沖突調(diào)停中的主導(dǎo)地位，以兌現(xiàn)其競(jìng)選承諾；第二，他希望進(jìn)一步改善美俄關(guān)系。特朗普最初試圖與俄羅斯達(dá)成協(xié)議，并迫使烏克蘭接受，但烏克蘭和歐洲均未接受其方案。如今，特朗普試圖扮演調(diào)停者的角色，但俄烏沖突的當(dāng)事方是俄羅斯和烏克蘭，因此美國(guó)難以直接影響俄烏沖突的走向。

Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.